KOLD Play 2x Inverse Natural Gas Trade Notes

KOLD Inverse Natural Gas
DateActionSymbolDescriptionPriceQuantityFees & CommAmount
02/14/2024Sell to OpenKOLD 02/16/2024 180.00 CCALL PROSHARES ULTRASHOR0 EXP 02/16/24$5.311$0.66$530.34
02/14/2024Buy to OpenKOLD 02/16/2024 165.00 PPUT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT5 EXP 02/16/24$5.141$0.66$-514.66
02/14/2024Sell to CloseKOLD 02/23/2024 151.00 PPUT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT1 EXP 02/23/24$5.361$0.66$535.34
02/12/2024BuyKOLDPROSHARES ULTRASHORT BLMNAT ETF$151.07100$-15107.00
02/12/2024Buy to OpenKOLD 02/23/2024 151.00 PPUT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT1 EXP 02/23/24$12.931$0.66$-1293.66

Objective: One week trade with a defined risk of $1293.66 minimum ROI annualized >=100%

As of 2/14 minimum realized gain of ~$650 maximum ~$2150 gain on expiration 12/16. Note above EXP rollback dates, allowing for collecting $20 premium with tactical objective to lock gain in by raising the protective PUT strike from 151 to 165. At time of the rollback trade market price was ~170. The rollback trade was followed by selling a CALL at 180 strike expiring on 12/16 collecting a $530.34 premium.

Note: If you’re viewing the active chart below to follow the trade and its well after the time of this post, you will have to navigate back in time to see it (Not sure if TradeView has static embeddable date ranges as of yet but if and when, I’ll edit this post to make ranges sticky.)

On day of expiration 2/16 trading range was between 161 and 172.5 throughout the day. During observation and observations each days prior trends my sentiment went from bullish to bearish. In order to ensure capture of additional profit I executed a same day expiration roll of the in-play CALL lowering its strike from 180 to 165 and collected another $400 in premiums.

DateActionSymbolDescriptionPriceQuantityFees & CommAmount
02/16/2024Buy to CloseKOLD 02/16/2024 180.00 CCALL PROSHARES ULTRASHOR$180 EXP 02/16/24$0.241$0.66-$24.66
02/16/2024Sell to OpenKOLD 02/16/2024 165.00 CCALL PROSHARES ULTRASHOR$165 EXP 02/16/24$4.261$0.66$425.34


At close, KOLD was trading at ~166 OTM of the protective PUT @165 and ITM of the CALL @165. At called away confirmation, entire trade net profit ~$1051. ROI≈81.31% on risk of $1293 or including CAPX total investment of $16,400 which includes the amount put at risk of $1293 “4 days annualized” ROI≈585.00% (need a math check, long day). Essentially a 4 day trade risking $1293, 2/12 entry, 2/14 actions locking in breakeven point gain then capturing $530 in premiums, 2/16 capturing another $400 in premiums exiting on expiration with net $1052.

Below is a snapshot of final day’s trading range.


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